AUGUST 2007 ISRAEL NEWS REVIEW

Jerusalem • 8/27/2007

WAR AND PEACE

Diplomatic moves toward a peaceful resolution of the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict were again evident during August, but at a far more subdued pace than in July.  This came amid continuing skepticism, expressed by many Israeli politicians and pundits, that this is the right time to pursue such a lofty goal, or even the right goal to go after at all. 

The main reason for such sentiments was the harrowing fact that the extremist Hamas movement further strengthened its stranglehold over the Gaza Strip during August, launching new attacks against Israeli soldiers and civilians, while showing itself to be a major political force in parts of Judea and Samaria under direct Palestinian Authority control.  At the same time, Hamas allies Hizbullah, Syria and Iran continued to utter boisterous war threats. 

Palestinian rockets poured down almost daily from the Gaza Strip onto nearby Israeli communities during the hot days and nights of August, injuring several people and prompting more Israeli army action and further talk of a major military response up ahead.  This came as an Israeli report was released stating that the radical Lebanese Hizbullah militia now possesses chemical and biological weapons and the means to deliver them to most parts of relatively tiny Israel. 

The militias main puppet master, Syria, claimed once again that Israelunder pressure from the United Stateswas preparing the ground for an imminent armed attack.  Israeli officials countered by pointing to Syrias ongoing wide-scale military maneuvers. The renewed war jitters produced a statement from two senior Israeli government leaders that such a conflict is not on Israels agenda, prompting some commentators to note that it takes only one party to start a war, which the other side can then not avoid.  

Russian officials confirmed in August that they are planning to significantly strengthen their longstanding alliance with Syria by reopening naval bases that were closed in the country after the collapse of the Soviet Union.  This came as the Assad regime in Damascus received new weapons shipments from the Kremlin while cynically expressing concern over a major new American military support package for Israel that was unveiled during the month, along with new funding for military purchases by Egypt and Saudi Arabia.  The goal of the stepped up US financial aid was said to be the hamstringing of Iran in its apparent goal to become the new Middle East master, obviously with Russian assistance.   Adding urgency to this goal, the radical Iranian president again threatened to wipe out Americas closest ally in the region, Israel.     

PEACE CHATTER GOES ON

As requested by the American government, embattled Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas met again in August to discuss various pressing issues between them.  Another meeting is set for later this week.  Media reports said the main topic was the parameters of a final status peace accord between the two sides, although both Abbas and Olmert denied that the informal talks had reached that critical stage. 

However later in the month, new Israeli President Shimon Peres announced that serious discussions about a set of fundamental principles were indeed taking place between the two leaders.  He added that some sort of agreement about the principals will be brought before an American-sponsored international Middle East peace conference scheduled to be held in the United States in November.  Press reports said a deal would include Israel ceding Arab portions of Jerusalem to the PA, along with most of nearby Judea and Samaria. 

Israeli political analysts said the Nobel peace prize winner was apparently referring to the outline of a final status peace accord, which many warned is bound to set off a new wave of anti-Israel and anti-PLO Fatah attacks by radical states and groups like Iran and Hamas, and also spark political upheaval and chaos inside of Israel since a final status framework accord would probably mandate mass Jewish evacuations from most portions of Judaisms biblical heartland, as demanded by the PA and its international backers, including the United States. 

Prominent Israeli political analysts from across the spectrum, along with several Knesset members, opined that it was entirely premature for Olmert and Abbaseach under political siege in their own backyardsto be discussing such explosive issues as the possible re-division of Jerusalem and uprooting of hundreds of Israeli communities at this stage of the game.  Among those who voiced this opinion was Olmerts very own Defense Minister, Ehud Barak, who is apparently preparing the ground for his expected campaign to return to the premiers chair by positioning himself smack dab in the middle of Israeli public opinion regarding any controversial final status accord. 

AMERICA EXERTS MORE PRESSURE

The Abbas-Olmert talks came as the main international advocate of renewed Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, visited the region once again.  The top American diplomat supposedly came here, along with US Defense Secretary Bill Gates, to help push along the peace process.  But many analysts said their real purpose was to shore up an anti-Iran regional alliance in the run up to possible US and/or Israeli military action against that countrys outlawed nuclear program. 

PM Olmert welcomed the senior American officials to his office in Jerusalem, as Abbas did to his headquarters in nearby Ramallah.  The Palestinian leaderwho later announced he would schedule new PA leadership and legislative elections early next year, but not be a candidate himself in themexpressed thanks to the Secretary of State for literally endorsing with her signature the Arab Leagues 2002 Saudi peace plan during a late July visit in Jeddah. 

Facing an internal revolt in his own Kadima political partywith around one-third of Kadimas 29 Knesset members threatening to break away from the centrist party if Olmert continues at its helmthe unpopular Israeli leader was less enthusiastic over Rices formal endorsement of the Arab peace plan.  He realizes it calls for a total Israeli withdrawal from every inch of land captured during the 1967 Six Day War, which means some 350,000 Jews would need to be uprooted from their current homes, nearly half of those inside Jerusalems municipal boundariesa prospect hardly popular in Israel.  Olmert also told the US diplomat he thought it was too soon for Israel to hand over security control in PA zones of control to armed Palestinian police forces, as she asked for, especially given the threat posed by Hamas loyalists residing in the area.  

Olmerts office denied a report in the Haaretz newspaper that the Premier had authorized a clandestine backchannel approach to senior Palestinian officials involving dovish new President Shimon Peres.  The paper said the elder statesman was authorized to offer the full Israeli withdrawal demanded by the Saudi plan, including from Jerusalems historic Old City with its sacred Temple Mount.  However speculation that backchannel talks were indeed taking place surfaced again later in the month when Peres announced he would soon meet with Abbas after holding talks with new PA Prime Minister Salaam Fayad, which the Israeli President claimed centered only on economic issues.  The speculation further mushroomed when Peres confirmed that final status framework talks are indeed taking place between Abbas and Olmert. 

Just how difficult it would be to uproot hundreds of thousands of Jews from their contested communities was illustrated in early August when the government ordered the immediate evacuation of just two Jewish families living without army permission in empty buildings in an evacuated former market area of Hebron.  Pointing out that the buildings had been owned and occupied by Jews until the Arab pogrom of 1929 that decimated the Jewish community in the holy town; the families had resisted Defense Ministry orders to leave.  Hundreds of soldiers and border policemen were deployed to remove the families and scores of Orthodox Jews who had come to support them.  Twelve observant soldiers who refused to join in the tempestuous evacuation were later jailed for their action.  However several subsequent opinion surveys showed just how deep the divisions are over such uprootings in Israeli society, with around 30% of the public saying they supported the soldiers defiance. 

HAMAS ON A ROLL

Olmert and Abbas confirmed that the overall security situation in the area was discussed during their early August meeting.  Some reports said those talks focused on recent Israeli and PA intelligence reports that Hamas has succeeded beyond anyones expectations in successfully taking over the Gaza Strip.  The Iranian and Syrian-backed group has reportedly established a significantly more effective and publicly popular government in the congested coastal zone in just two months time than the ousted Fatah PA administration did in well over one decade of rule. 

Despite the intelligence reports, a late August opinion poll showed a popular swing back toward the ousted PLO Fatah movement. However analysts noted that the survey was taken in the sweltering Gaza Strip following several days without electricity supplies exacerbated by a European Union decision to temporarily halt fuel payments amid reports that the funds were going directly into Hamas pockets.  And a significant plurality said their personal safety had increased under Hamas rule. 

The survey revealed that 47% of Gazas residents favor the new government of moderate PM Fayad, which is currently only ruling over portions of Judea and Samaria, while only 31% want to see former Hamas PM Ismail Haniyeh restored to the PA premiers chair.  Analysts said some of Fayads popularity may have been due to his apparent decision in early August to fund thousands of former PA officials in Gaza with links to Hamas.  The move angered both Israeli and American officials

Given that elected Hamas officials still control most of the largest municipalities in PA ruled portions of Judea and Samaria, along with many smaller towns and villages there, the assessment of relative Hamas success in setting up a government in the Gaza Strip was unsettling to US and Israeli leaders.  It brought further concern that PA security forces commanded by Abbas may not be able to hold there own if a Hamas armed showdown is launched in the area, as occurred in Gaza.  Evidence that Hamas is considering stage two of its June offensive came in early August when a powerful Hamas bomb was detonated in a PA jail in the largest Palestinian city, Nablus.  The attack was seen as a stark warning by the radical group that it will not sit still if a PA crackdown on Hamas armed cells continues in Judea and Samaria.  

Palestinian Kassam rocket attacks upon Jewish communities were stepped up around the Gaza Strip in August, including a direct hit on a private home anda thankfully emptykindergarten in the besieged town of Sderot.  In response, IDF action was launched against various Gaza targets during the month amid increasing calls for a major new army operation.   Reports said nearly 20 Palestinian fighters were killed, several while trying to attack Israeli ground forces stationed along the border fence.  A cross border terror attack was thwarted on August 25 when alert IDF soldiers spotted several infiltrators, wearing stolen IDF uniforms, on their way to attack a Jewish community in the area.  In Nablus, an Islamic Jihad terrorist leader was killed in an undercover army operation.  

Meanwhile Hamas officials confirmed reports they are drafting thousands of men into a new armed police force in the Gaza Strip to replace the overrun PA security force.  The new Muslim force will supposedly only act in a policing capacity, and be kept separate from the virtual army that Hamas is also building, with heavy weaponry and Iranian assistance, in the conquered coastal zone. 

NORTHERN EXPLOSION?

Reports of a possible major war this year between Syria and Israel, with the probable involvement of radical Hamas and Hizbullah forces as well, and maybe also Iran, continued to boil during the unusually hot month of August.  The government-run Syrian newspaper Tishrin claimed on August 19 that extensive Israeli military maneuvers signaled an imminent attack being planned upon the Arab nation.  The report also said that a new large American military aid package for Israelworth 30 billion dollars over the next decade, with 75% to be spent in the United States, therefore shoring up American defense industriesis designed to provoke war between the two Middle East enemies.  The US aid package announcement came amid a reported sharp drop in UK weapons sales to Israel, down a massive 75% since 2005. 

The Syrian newspaper did not mention the fact that the White House also announced a $20 billion military aid package over the next decade for Saudi Arabia and four other Gulf Arab countries, apparently to help counter the growing Iranian threat.  An additional support grant was also unveiled for Egypt.  Israeli officials expressed concern over one aspect of the Saudi deal, which would allow that country to transform regular bombs into laser guided smart bombs which could more accurately threaten potential Israeli targets.

Israeli leaders made clear that they have absolutely no plans to order a military strike on Syria.  They said stepped up army, navy and air force preparations were only in response to intensified Syrian military activity, which began to be noticed soon after Syrian dictator Bashar Assad announced in the wake of Hizbullahs supposed victory in the Second Lebanon War that he was ready to take back the Israeli-captured Golan Heights by force.  PM Olmert tried to dampen all war talk during the month, saying he does not expect clashes with Syria or Hizbullah this year.  He also asked his cabinet ministers to stop talking about the possibility of conflict lest such words actually help trigger a showdown. 

The Jerusalem Post dramatically headlined the Syrian threat on August 24, warning that the Assad regime appears to be preparing for a massive missile onslaught upon the small Jewish-ruled state, probably backed by missiles from Hizbullah and Iran. The report said the IDF brass is repositioning the sophisticated Arrow anti-missile system in the north to deal with the prospect of hundreds of ballistic Scud missiles, potentially tipped with chemical warheads, being simultaneously fired upon Israel. 

Equally worrisome are hundreds of shorter range Hizbullah and Syrian rockets that can fly under Arrows radar range.  Israels largest Hebrew daily, Yediot Ahronot, reported that Israeli officials now believe Hizbullah possesses chemical warheads supplied by Syria and paid for by Iran.  This seemed to be confirmed by Hizbullah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah who warned in a bombastic mid-August speech that Israel would face a colossal surprise that wouldchange the fate of the region if it attacked his Shiite forces in Lebanon. 

Adding to volcanic Middle East tensions, press reports said the first of many announced Russian arms shipments to Syria was delivered in Augustcontaining the Pantsyr-S1 anti-aircraft missiles defense system. With a range of about eight miles, it is said to pose a major tactical threat to any aircraft penetrating Syrian airspace, and even to Israeli jets operating over the Golan Heights.  Media reports said Syria plans to send some of the weapons on to Iran in exchange for financial aid from Tehran. 

In such dark days, it is certainly comforting to recall that no less than The Lord has chosen Zion, He has desired it for His habitation. This is My resting place forever.  Here I will dwell, for I have desired it (Psalm 132:13-14).